Introducing a genetically modified banana in Uganda: Social benefits, costs, and consumer perceptions

"Banana is a staple crop consumed by Ugandan households. The Uganda National Agricultural Research Organization has implemented conventional and biotechnology programs that seek improving bananas and address the crop's most important pest and disease problems. A major thrust is the development of genetically modified (GM) bananas. The purpose of this paper is to examine potential social welfare impacts of adopting a GM banana in Uganda. The study has three objectives. First, suggest and apply an approach to calculate reversible and irreversible benefits and costs of introducing a GM banana. The study applies a real option approach to estimate, ex ante, the maximum incremental social tolerable irreversible costs (MISTICs) that would justify immediate introduction of the technology. Second, suggest an approach for assessing producer/consumer preferences and willingness to pay (WTP) for introducing a GM banana. Finally, the paper discusses main implications for biosafety decision making for GM crops in Uganda. Results of MISTICs estimation for different scenarios indicate that in delaying the approval of a GM banana, Uganda foregoes potential annual benefits ranging approximately from US$179 million to US$365 million. Average annual MISTICs per household vary between US$34 and US$ 69. Results indicate that only if the average household is willing to give up at least US$38 per year to avoid introduction of a GM banana, should postponing an immediate release be considered. Results imply that although GM bananas promise vast benefits, realization of those benefits depends on consumers' perceptions and attitudes and the willingness to pay for the GM technology." from Author's AbstractGM banana, Real option, Choice experiment, Biosafety, MISTICs,

Parables: applied economics literature about the impact of genetically engineered crop varieties in developing economies

"A vast literature has accumulated since crop varieties with transgenic resistance to insects and herbicide tolerance were released to farmers in 1996 and 1997. A comparatively minor segment of this literature consists of studies conducted by agricultural economists to measure the farm-level impact of transgenic crop varieties, the size and distribution of the economic benefits from adopting them, consumer attitudes toward GE products, and implications for international trade. This paper focuses only on the applied economics literature about the impact of transgenic crop varieties in non-industrialized agricultural systems, with an emphasis on methods. A number of studies have surveyed the findings for both industrialized and non-industrialized agriculture, at various points in time, but surveys of methods are less frequent and have typically examined only one overall question or approach. Clearly, the methods used in research influence the findings that are presented and what they mean. Understanding the methods therefore enhances understanding of the findings. Four categories of impact analysis are considered: farmers, consumers, industry and trade. In part due to methodological limitations and the relatively brief time frame of most analyses, results are promising, but the balance sheet is mixed. Thus, findings of current case studies should not be generalized to other locations, crops, and traits. The aim of this review is to progress toward the defining a “best practices” methodology for national researchers who seek to produce relevant information about emerging crop biotechnologies for national policymakers. " Authors' AbstractGenetically engineered crops, Economic impacts, Technology adoption, Developing economies, Economics methods, Best practices, biotechnology,

Risk assessment and management of genetically modified organisms under Australia's Gene Technology Act:

"Compared to both Canada and the United States, Australia has been slow to approve commercial planting of transgenic crops. Two probable reasons exist for the slow approval rate of transgenic crops in Australia. The first reason is community perceptions about the risks associated with transgenic technologies. The second is the regulatory framework currently employed to approve commercial releases. This paper examines some of the potential regulatory issues that may be affecting the review process and approval of transgenic technologies. First we provide a brief introduction to the regulatory structure in Australia, second we consider the impact of regional, national and state jurisdictions, third we argue that the regulator needs to consider the use of benefits analysis in decision making, fourth we argue for the use of probabilistic risk assessments in certain circumstances, and fifth we look at potential problems inherent in majority voting in a committee and recommend alternatives." Authors' AbstractRisk assessment,

A latent class approach to investigating consumer demand for genetically modified staple food in a developing country: The case of GM bananas in Uganda

genetically modified bananas, Consumers, Choice experiment, latent class model, preference heterogeneity, Science and technology, Genetic resources, Genetically engineered crops, Genetically modified crops,

Insecticide use on vegetables in Ghana: Would GM seed benefit farmers?

"Tomato, cabbage, and garden egg (African eggplant, or Solanum aethiopicum) are important crops for small-scale farmers and migrants in the rural and peri-urban areas of Ghana. Genetic modification has the potential to alleviate poverty through combating yield losses from pests and diseases in these crops, while reducing health risks from application of hazardous chemicals. This ex ante study uses farm survey data to gauge the potential for adoption of genetically modified (GM) varieties, estimate the potential impact of adoption on farm profits, and highlight economic differences among the three crops. Farmers' expenditures on insecticides are below the economic optimum in all three crops, and the estimated function for damage abatement shows that insecticide amounts are significant determinants of cabbage yields only. Nonetheless, yield losses from pests and disease affect insecticide use. A stochastic budget analysis also indicates a higher rate of return to vegetable production with the use of resistant seeds relative to the status quo, even considering the technology transfer fee for GM seed. Non–insecticide users could accrue higher marginal benefits than current insecticide users. Comparing among vegetable crops with distinct economic characteristics provides a wider perspective on the potential impact of GM technology. Until now, GM eggplant is the only vegetable crop that has been analyzed in the peer-reviewed, applied economics literature. This is the first analysis that includes African eggplant." from authors' abstractBiotechnology Developing countries, Genetically modified crops, pesticides, Pests Management, eggplant, damage abatement, stochastic budget analysis,

An exploration of the potential benefits of integrated pest management systems and the use of insect resistant potatoes to control the Guatemalan Tuber Moth (Tecia solanivora Povolny) in Ventaquemada, Colombia:

"CORPOICA and IFPRI implemented a research project in Ventaquemada, Colombia. The project's goal was to asses the benefits of Integrated Pest Management (IPM) practices and the potential of Genetically Modified insect resistant (Bt) potatoes to manage damage caused by the Guatemalan Tuber Moth (Tecia solanivora Povolny). The Guatemalan Tuber Moth is particularly destructive because field spraying on the adult stage is ineffective and there exists damage specificity to the tubers. Excessive pesticide sprays have resulted in resistance to several insecticides. Insect resistant (Bt) potatoes has been shown an effective means to control other members of the Tuber Moth complex. Thus a Bt potato may play a role in managing Tecia in Colombia. This is an ex ante study as there are no Bt potatoes currently under field conditions in Colombia.. To examine this issue, we conducted a survey in 2003 of 78 farmers in the region to estimate a baseline of traditionally and IPM managed systems. The first year survey was supplemented with focus groups to examine damage and production costs in 2003 and 2004. We also implemented activities such as field verification of IPM practices and damage, a Farmer Field School and other participatory methods. Our analysis uses methods such partial budgeting analysis, a production function input abatement expectations model, and an economic surplus model augmented by stochastic simulations. Results of the analysis presented here outlines estimated losses under field and storage conditions, likely range of benefits accrued by farmers in the region due to the potential adoption of a portfolio of IPM management practices and Bt potatoes. Results from the survey conducted in 2003 show that producers in the area have endured significant field and storage losses within the previous 10 years, but were low in that particular year. Initial results where confirmed by results of focus groups in 2003 and 2004 which show very low field and storage damage. Sustained precipitation explains the observed low levels of damage by the Tuber Moth. Low levels of damage induced zero (or even negative) cost differences between conventional and IPM management. In contrast, using the proposed expectation model to estimate expected payoffs to IPM investments show that even with low levels of damage it still pays for producers to invest in IPM practices. The economic surplus estimates show that even considering variability of field and storage losses, as well as of other critical parameters, the use of Bt potatoes in Colombia creates a positive return to investment to Bt potato research, assuming that damage is present under field conditions. We finalize by discussing some of the institutional and strategic considerations for the potential use of Bt potatoes in the country." Authors' abstractPotatoes Economic aspects, Genetically modified crops, Economic surplus model, Risk, Research and development, Bt-potatoes,

Analysis for biotechnology innovations using Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA):

" Meeting the food needs of the world's growing population while reducing poverty and protecting the environment is a major global challenge. Genetically modified crops appear to provide a promising option to deal with this challenge. However there is a need to make strategic decisions on how to spend limited agricultural research funds in order to achieve a maximum impact with regard to finding sustainable solutions to end hunger and poverty. In international development institutions, there is growing interest in the potential use of Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) as part of a research based Environmental Management System (EMS) to promote mainstreaming of environmental considerations in policy development. SEA was developed as an approach to integrate environmental considerations at a policy level, where alternatives environmental policies can be evaluated. In this paper, we propose using SEA in a policy research and priority setting process regarding new technologies, taking the development of Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs) as an example. We propose that this method would be a useful tool for the international agricultural research centers of the Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research (CGIAR), streamlining business processes, strengthening accountability, sharpening the research agenda it supports, fostering broader partnerships, and increasing the relevance and impact of CGIAR research in achieving international development goals. Currently international law requires only Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) of specific biotechnology projects. The incorporation of environmental considerations only at the level of specific projects precludes the adoption of alternative environmental policies. In this review, we outline an SEA approach currently being considered at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) for use in evaluating biotechnology policies. SEA may be a useful tool to inform the evaluation of biotechnology policies and priorities by taking account of information on the economic, social, and environmental benefits, cost and risks of adopting those policies." Authors' AbstractRisk, Strategic Environmental Assessment, Genetically modified organisms, Living modified organisms,

Plant genetic resources for agriculture, plant breeding, and biotechnology: Experiences from Cameroon, Kenya, the Philippines, and Venezuela

"Local farming communities throughout the world face binding productivity constraints, diverse nutritional needs, environmental concerns, and significant economic and financial pressures. Developing countries address these challenges in different ways, including public and private sector investments in plant breeding and other modern tools for genetic crop improvement. In order to measure the impact of any technology and prioritize investments, we must assess the relevant resources, human capacity, clusters, networks and linkages, as well as the institutions performing technological research and development, and the rate of farmer adoption. However, such measures have not been recently assessed, in part due to the lack of complete standardized information on public plant breeding and biotechnology research in developing countries. To tackle this void, the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO), in consultation with the International Food Policy Institute (IFPRI) and other organizations, designed a plant breeding and biotechnology capacity survey for implementation by FAO consultants in 100 developing countries. IFPRI, in collaboration with FAO and national experts contracted by FAO to complete in-country surveys, identified and analyzed plant breeding and biotechnology programs in four developing countries: Cameroon, Kenya, the Philippines, and Venezuela. Here, we use an innovation systems framework to examine the investments in human and financial resources and the distribution of resources among the different programs, as well as the capacity and policy development for agricultural research in the four selected countries. Based on our findings, we present recommendations to help sustain and increase the efficiency of publicly- and privately-funded plant breeding programs, while maximizing the use of genetic resources and developing opportunities for GM crop production. Policy makers, private sector breeders, and other stakeholders can use this information to prioritize investments, consider product advancement, and assess the relative magnitude of the potential risks and benefits of their investments." from Author's Abstractplant breeding, biotechnology, public research, Funding, Innovation systems, Capacity building, Biosafety,

La biotecnología agropecuaria en América Latina: Una visión cuantitativa

"La biotecnología agropecuaria ha demostrado tener amplio potencial para ayudar a mejorar la eficiencia de la agricultura, el crecimiento económico y las políticas dirigidas a combatir a la pobreza, tanto en América Latina como en el resto del mundo. La amplia y creciente difusión de biotecnologías que aplican métodos de transformación genética en América Latina y en el mundo, es una muestra visible de su potencial. Sin embargo, esta tecnología representa un cambio en el paradigma del proceso de innovación y transferencia del conocimiento lo cual puede tener consecuencias importantes para la región. En la bio-economía, campo donde se juntan la innovación biológica y el conocimiento, la biotecnología tendrá un papel preponderante, pero también planteará nuevos retos y desafíos a las organizaciones y sistemas de investigación y desarrollo, al igual que a las de transferencia de tecnologías y conocimientos. En este informe, se presentan los datos y el análisis de una encuesta realizada en 18 países latinoamericanos. Los resultados cuantitativos de estas encuestas, que fueron suplementados con toda la información secundaria disponible y el análisis de los expertos regionales y nacionales en la materia que componen el equipo de trabajo, hacen de este documento una valiosa herramienta para evaluar la capacidad de innovación biotecnológica en América Latina. Un segundo documento incluirá una discusión más detallada de las políticas y alternativas de acción, y las pondrá a la disposición de los países de la región. Los resultados de este estudio muestran que a pesar de que las biotecnologías han tenido una amplia difusión en América Latina (en el 2008, se sembraron cultivos genéticamente mejorados en más de 40 millones de hectáreas en la región), la mayoría de las aplicaciones biotecnológicas en los sistemas de innovación público y privado son de tipo convencional. Estos resultados no implican necesariamente que las tecnologías convencionales tengan el potencial de contribuir al valor agregado de las cadenas agroalimentarias ni que los productores tengan la capacidad de usar estas tecnologías. Lo que estos resultados sí muestran es una diferencia muy marcada en la capacidad de innovación de los distintos países y regiones del continente. Los países con un historial notable de hacer inversiones en recursos humanos y financieros, en la innovación y en el cambio tecnológico, como Brasil, México y Argentina, tienen una gran capacidad en términos del número de tecnologías que dominan, tanto modernas como convencionales. Los países con una capacidad de innovación intermedia, como Colombia, Chile, Costa Rica, Perú y Uruguay, tienen un potencial muy respetable para utilizar tecnologías tanto convencionales como modernas. En cambio, el resto de los países centroamericanos, junto con Bolivia, Ecuador, Paraguay y la República Dominicana, tienen una capacidad de innovación biotecnológica convencional muy pobre y, en el caso de la innovación biotecnológica moderna, casi nula. Cabe señalar que en muchos casos, la capacidad existente en estos últimos países consiste en individuos y equipos de trabajos muy pequeños o aislados, lo cual refleja la falta de programas gubernamentales de apoyo a la agricultura. Las instituciones en América Latina que trabajan en la innovación biotecnológica cubren una amplia gama de cultivos y limitantes de la productividad. Por un lado, esto refleja la gran diversidad de recursos genéticos que existe en la región y el notable esfuerzo que invierten los sistemas de investigación en atender aquellos cultivos y atributos productivos que son de importancia estratégica para la región. Por otro lado, la expansión a un portafolio de innovación más amplio sin un incremento significativo en los recursos humanos y financieros, en muchos países ha diluido notablemente la capacidad del sistema de innovación biotecnológica. Cabe resaltar que los países han destinado muy pocos recursos a los cultivos genéticamente mejorados, especialmente los difundidos comercialmente en la región, quizá debido a que han decidido concentrar sus esfuerzos en aquellos productos de carácter público que no entran en competencia directa con el sector privado. El volumen de recursos humanos y financieros destinados a una actividad de innovación es un indicador indirecto del interés de la región en la misma, que también nos da una idea de la capacidad de innovación del país o región. Según este indicador, existen países con un sistema de investigación e innovación bastante avanzado, como Brasil, México y Argentina, que destinan cantidades relativamente significativas de recursos humanos y financieros a la investigación en general y a la biotecnología en particular. Hay dos países que sobresalen por tener niveles e intensidades de inversión bastantes elevados, considerando su economía y el tamaño del mercado potencial: Uruguay y Costa Rica. Esto se debe a políticas específicas de sus gobiernos, que consideran la ciencia y tecnología, y la agricultura, como componentes esenciales del desarrollo. Dicha situación contrasta con los bajos niveles de inversión en biotecnología agropecuaria y en los procesos de innovación en general, en el resto de América Central, Bolivia, Paraguay y la República Dominicana. Estos niveles bajos de inversión podrían ser consecuencia del contexto político, institucional y social en estos países, ya que algunos de ellos se han opuesto al uso e introducción de organismos genéticamente mejorados y de la tecnología en general. Aunque la superficie sembrada con cultivos genéticamente mejorados ha ido incrementando a un paso acelerado, esta expansión se ha dado en cuatro cultivos (soja, maíz, algodón y canola) que tienen dos atributos (resistencia a herbicidas y a insectos) en ocho países (Brasil, Argentina, México, Uruguay, Paraguay, Bolivia, Honduras y Colombia). Todos los cultivos diseminados comercialmente fueron desarrollados por empresas multinacionales privadas. Hasta el momento, ningún sistema nacional de innovación en América Latina, ya sea público o privado, ha transferido comercialmente una tecnología desarrollada por el sistema mismo; más bien, se limitan a adaptar y transferir características agronómicas deseables a variedades y especies nacionales utilizando medios convencionales. Esto no significa que no haya tecnologías suficientemente desarrolladas para ser lanzadas al mercado, lo cual ha sido documentado en la literatura. Es más bien un llamado de atención para examinar las causas que pudiesen explicar este fenómeno, incluyendo la capacidad de evaluar la bioseguridad y la inocuidad de los alimentos, la complejidad de los procesos regulatorios y el elevado costo de la evaluación de bioseguridad ––y, particularmente, de la inocuidad–– en cada país. Aunamos a estos agentes causales, la poca capacidad para negociar y solucionar problemas relacionados con la propiedad intelectual o con los instrumentos de protección intelectual; establecer alianzas estratégicas; transferir tecnologías; y mantener el valor agregado en la cadena agroalimentaria (product stewardship). Para evaluar la bioseguridad y la inocuidad de los alimentos, es necesario contar con una masa crítica mínima de capacidad científica, potenciada por inversiones en recursos humanos, tecnológicos y financieros. Esta masa crítica no existe en muchos de los países analizados y, aun en aquellos que sí la tienen, las presiones sociales y políticas han entorpecido la diseminación de tecnologías aprobadas por los organismos regulatorios. La poca capacidad, aunada a la incertidumbre respecto al proceso regulatorio, afecta negativamente las instituciones nacionales de investigación tanto públicas como privadas, que en muchos casos disponen de escasos recursos. Esta debilidad necesita ser atendida por las políticas a nivel nacional o regional. Las limitaciones del proceso de bioseguridad pueden llegar a anular las ganancias logradas con el manejo de la propiedad intelectual y el establecimiento de alianzas estratégicas. En cuanto a la propiedad intelectual, Brasil, Argentina y México cuentan con instrumentos y capacidad de negociación a un nivel razonable. Sin embargo, la mayoría de los instrumentos de protección en estos tres países fueron elaborados por no-residentes. La biotecnología tiene un potencial real de contribuir a solucionar problemas específicos de la agricultura latinoamericana que no han sido resueltos por métodos convencionales. Al mismo tiempo, tiene la capacidad de enfocarse en problemas específicos, cuya solución contribuirá al crecimiento económico y, por ende, a combatir la pobreza. Pese a los marcados contrastes en la capacidad de innovación biotecnológica y científica en general, existe actualmente mucha capacidad innovadora que necesitará ser canalizada, a medida que la agricultura retome el papel protagónico en el proceso de desarrollo. La agricultura para el desarrollo sólo será posible si se fomenta la innovación y la transferencia de tecnologías útiles a los productores, pero esto no es suficiente; es necesario, además, resolver los factores que limitan la capacidad para evaluar la bioseguridad y la inocuidad, la propiedad intelectual, y la integración de las mismas en las cadenas de valor agroalimentarias en un marco de transparencia que respete los principios de equidad y sostenibilidad. El formular e implementar políticas razonables, que al público le inspiren confianza, y que logren la inserción de biotecnologías adecuadas y sostenibles, será el mayor reto que enfrentarán los países latinoamericanos. Esta aseveración es más importante aun en el caso particular de tecnologías controvertidas como los cultivos genéticamente mejorados." from authors' abstractbiotechnology, Capacity, Research and development, Genetically modified organisms, Crops, Biosafety,

Security analysis for agroterrorism: applying the threat, vulnerability, consequence framework to developing countries

"We examine access to, use of, and participation in decisions on improved water supply in the Volta basin of Ghana, one of the first countries to introduce a community-based approach to rural water supply on a large scale. While 71 percent of the households interviewed have access to improved water, 43 percent of these continue to use unsafe sources as their main domestic water source. Our results indicate that quality perceptions and opportunity costs play an important role in households' choice of water source. The effect of prices and income levels on this choice differs according to the pricing system used. Given that supply characteristics such as the location and pricing system affect household decisions to use the improved source, households may try to influence these characteristics in their favor during the community decision-making process for the improved source. However, less than 40 percent of the households interviewed participated in decisions on location or technology. We argue that the decision whether to participate depends on three main factors: (i) the household's bargaining power, (ii) the potential benefits from influencing outcomes, and (iii) the cost of participation, (mainly opportunity cost of time). Our results indicate that bargaining power matters In some developing countries the potential exists for agroterrorism to cause widespread disruption through loss of sustenance, income and production. Defense of agriculture may also be problematic because of the lack stability and basic biosecurity infrastructure for the detection and prevention of diseases or invasive species. Currently new methodological approaches for terrorism risk assessments are being actively explored for resource prioritization. One such methodology for risk based allocation of resources is Threat, Vulnerability, and Consequence (TVC) Analysis. A qualitative application of the TVC framework is used to analyze the risk of agroterrorism in developing countries relative to industrialized countries. The analysis suggests that evidence exists to demonstrate general terrorist threats, vulnerability of agriculture and, depending on the country, potentially serious consequences arising from argoterrorism. Where specific threats emerge, action may be needed by the international community to strengthen biosecurity systems in developing countries through: increasing global cooperation, capacity building in monitoring, remediation and risk analysis technologies, and the dissemination of novel technologies for control of pests and diseases." Authors' AbstractCapacity strengthening, Water-supply Management, Agroterrorism, Biosecurity, Risk analysis, resource allocation, Terrorism, Governance,